As students have returned to school the media has been inundated with stories about how there are less teachers than there were before. Virtually every news outlet that touches education has covered the teacher shortage. (We are no exception.) But one of the stories that has gotten lost in all of the hubbub about there being less teachers is the fact that there are actually less students as well.

Millions of students have opted out of public schools.

According to a survey conducted by Education Next, almost two million fewer students are enrolled in public schools as compared to 2020. This is a loss of about four percent. This data begs an obvious question: Where did they go and why?  

The first part of that question is fairly simple. Children have to be enrolled in school and there are only three options outside of traditional public schools: charter, private and home. All three of those schooling options have gained students over the same period that public schools has lost them.

As for why … that answer seems to be a little more complicated.

A lot of events have happened since the beginning of 2020. This is especially true in education. Since January of 2020 we have had school shutdowns, mask-mandates, vaccine requirements, arguments about race and LGBTQIA+ issues, and curriculum battles. All of these issues played a role.

Some parents moved their children to schools that were open during the height of the shutdowns and simply never moved them back.

It is common knowledge that most parents found remote learning inconvenient, but there are families who thought it worked better for them as evident by the increased enrollment in virtual charter schools.

Parents drove most of the debate around critical race theory and LGBTQIA+ themes in school and some of them have reported looking for different educational options because of it.

Birthrates are also on the decline in America.

It is important to know that charter schools have simply been gaining enrollment over the years anyway, and more states have created voucher systems which make parochial and other private schools more accessible financially.

One might ask how the teacher shortage interplays with the decline in enrollment. While people might be tempted to think that a loss of students is a mitigating factor for schools who have unfilled positions the reality is much simpler. For starters, in many places, the decline in teachers is outpacing the decline in students. Additionally, some of the other educational sectors that families are choosing are also facing a teacher shortage. For example, many charter schools in urban areas are also struggling to find qualified educators. Also, less students means less funding and in districts where there are fixed or in many cases, rising infrastructure costs the loss of head count money cuts into the available pot to hire new teachers.

Read the full survey and brief here. (Education Next)